Current Signal
Model projects 4.06% for June 2026 CPI — Cleveland Fed at 4.01% · release in 21d.
3 buckets show ≥5pp edge: 4.1% (+35.0pp), 4.0% (+28.6pp), 4.2% (+15.7pp)
Trade entry requires credibility score ≤ −2 or ≥ +2. Currently 0 (mixed signals — signals need to align before betting).
Status
WATCH
score 0
Nowcast Credibility
Mixed signals — trust Cleveland Fed baseline
Energy prices up YoY — adds to headline CPI
Nowcast actively moving — incorporating new data
Used-car prices decelerating — deflationary drag
Bond market below nowcast — skeptical
4 signals, each −1 / 0 / +1. Trade gate: |score| ≥ 2.
Positive = Cleveland Fed likely understating (upside risk).
Negative = Cleveland Fed likely overstating (downside risk).
Model Inputs
Cleveland Fed Nowcast
4.01%
Headline CPI YoY forecast
L1 Model Estimate
4.06% ± 0.10pp
Ridge-adjusted mean ± σ
Nowcast Stickiness
0.232
30-day range of nowcast (higher = more active)
Breakeven Spread
-1.77pp
5Y breakeven − nowcast (negative = bond mkt below nowcast)
Manheim Delta
-4.49pp
MoM change in used-car YoY price
Energy YoY (EIA)
+21.8%
52-week YoY in regular gas price
Edge Signals
Score 0 · trade triggers at ≤ −2 or ≥ +2| Bucket | Model | Market | Edge | Kelly½ | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.1% | 35.5% | 0.5% | +35.0% | — | $53k |
| 4.0% | 31.8% | 3.3% | +28.6% | — | $77k |
| 4.2% | 16.1% | 0.4% | +15.7% | — | $30k |
| 4.3% | 2.9% | 0.1% | +2.8% | — | $20k |
| 4.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | +0.2% | — | $16k |
| 4.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1% | — | $14k |
| ≥4.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1% | — | $14k |
| 4.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1% | — | $18k |
| ≤3.6% | 0.0% | 2.0% | -2.0% | — | $27k |
| 3.9% | 11.6% | 17.0% | -5.4% | — | $64k |
| 3.7% | 0.1% | 26.9% | -26.8% | — | $37k |
| 3.8% | 1.7% | 52.1% | -50.4% | — | $67k |
Edge = model probability − market price. Kelly½ = half-Kelly sizing, shown only when score ≤ −2 or ≥ +2. Highlighted rows have ≥5pp gap.