Current Signal
Model calls 3.74% (σ 0.11) for October 2026 CPI · release in 2d.
Model and market agree on 3.7% as the most likely print — no material disagreement to trade.
Position
ON
paper
Today's decision
ENTERED1 bucket(s) clear 5% fee-adjusted edge at T-14d; total $54.97 (5.5% of bankroll, half-Kelly)
Total $54.97 · half-Kelly · paper only
Decide-and-disclose: the trader acts autonomously on fee-adjusted edge with horizon-calibrated uncertainty, and logs every judgment — including the ones where it stands down. There is no conviction gate to satisfy.
Model Inputs
Cleveland Fed Nowcast
3.74%
Headline CPI YoY forecast
hcal Model Estimate
3.74% ± 0.11pp
Horizon-calibrated μ ± σ (t-tails, market blend)
Nowcast Stickiness
0.147
30-day range of nowcast (higher = more active)
Breakeven Spread
-1.45pp
5Y breakeven − nowcast (negative = bond mkt below nowcast)
Manheim Delta
-1.50pp
MoM change in used-car YoY price
Energy YoY (EIA)
+37.6%
52-week YoY in regular gas price
Model vs Market
raw edge, before fees and entry filters| Bucket | Model | Market | Edge | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.8% | 9.7% | 4.3% | +5.4% | $7k |
| 3.6% | 5.6% | 3.9% | +1.7% | $7k |
| 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | +1.6% | $8k |
| 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | +0.6% | $4k |
| 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | +0.4% | $7k |
| 3.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | +0.2% | $4k |
| 4.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | +0.2% | $5k |
| ≤3.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $5k |
| 3.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $5k |
| ≥4.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $5k |
| 4.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $4k |
| 3.7% | 78.8% | 88.5% | -9.7% | $23k |
Edge = model probability − market mid. Whether an edge is actually traded is decided by the paper trader (fee adjustment, ask price, liquidity, staleness, price bounds) — see today's decision card. Highlighted rows have ≥5pp gap.