Current Signal
Model calls 3.43% (σ 0.13) for July 2026 CPI · release in 5d.
Model and market agree on 3.4% as the most likely print — no material disagreement to trade.
Position
FLAT
paper
Today's decision
NO TRADEno bucket cleared the fee-adjusted edge threshold
Decide-and-disclose: the trader acts autonomously on fee-adjusted edge with horizon-calibrated uncertainty, and logs every judgment — including the ones where it stands down. There is no conviction gate to satisfy.
Model Inputs
Cleveland Fed Nowcast
3.42%
Headline CPI YoY forecast
hcal Model Estimate
3.43% ± 0.13pp
Horizon-calibrated μ ± σ (t-tails, market blend)
Nowcast Stickiness
0.428
30-day range of nowcast (higher = more active)
Breakeven Spread
-1.19pp
5Y breakeven − nowcast (negative = bond mkt below nowcast)
Manheim Delta
-1.50pp
MoM change in used-car YoY price
Energy YoY (EIA)
+29.9%
52-week YoY in regular gas price
Model vs Market
raw edge, before fees and entry filters| Bucket | Model | Market | Edge | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5% | 18.9% | 16.5% | +2.4% | $39k |
| 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.1% | +2.1% | $22k |
| 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | +0.7% | $25k |
| 3.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | +0.2% | $19k |
| 3.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | +0.1% | $21k |
| ≥4.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | +0.0% | $22k |
| 4.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | +0.0% | $20k |
| 4.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0% | $21k |
| ≤3.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | -0.0% | $30k |
| 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | -0.2% | $28k |
| 3.4% | 41.5% | 45.5% | -4.0% | $62k |
| 3.3% | 27.1% | 32.5% | -5.4% | $63k |
Edge = model probability − market mid. Whether an edge is actually traded is decided by the paper trader (fee adjustment, ask price, liquidity, staleness, price bounds) — see today's decision card. Highlighted rows have ≥5pp gap.