Current Signal
Model calls 3.59% (σ 0.17) for September 2026 CPI · release in 21d.
Model and market agree on 3.6% as the most likely print — no material disagreement to trade.
Position
FLAT
paper
Today's decision
NO TRADEoutside entry window: T-22d (window T-14..T-3)
Decide-and-disclose: the trader acts autonomously on fee-adjusted edge with horizon-calibrated uncertainty, and logs every judgment — including the ones where it stands down. There is no conviction gate to satisfy.
Model Inputs
Cleveland Fed Nowcast
3.57%
Headline CPI YoY forecast
hcal Model Estimate
3.59% ± 0.17pp
Horizon-calibrated μ ± σ (t-tails, market blend)
Nowcast Stickiness
0.270
30-day range of nowcast (higher = more active)
Breakeven Spread
-1.18pp
5Y breakeven − nowcast (negative = bond mkt below nowcast)
Manheim Delta
-1.50pp
MoM change in used-car YoY price
Energy YoY (EIA)
+41.1%
52-week YoY in regular gas price
Model vs Market
raw edge, before fees and entry filters| Bucket | Model | Market | Edge | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | +1.0% | $6k |
| 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | +0.5% | $6k |
| ≥4.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | +0.5% | $3k |
| 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | +0.4% | $3k |
| 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | +0.3% | $3k |
| 3.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $3k |
| ≤2.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | +0.1% | $3k |
| 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | -0.0% | $3k |
| 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | -0.1% | $4k |
| 3.5% | 18.1% | 18.5% | -0.4% | $16k |
| 3.7% | 24.7% | 28.0% | -3.3% | $10k |
| 3.6% | 40.3% | 46.0% | -5.8% | $13k |
Edge = model probability − market mid. Whether an edge is actually traded is decided by the paper trader (fee adjustment, ask price, liquidity, staleness, price bounds) — see today's decision card. Highlighted rows have ≥5pp gap.