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Pre-print brief

as of 2026-08-07

Pre-print brief — July 2026 CPI

Generated 2026-08-07 · release 2026-08-12 (T-5d) · market july-inflation-us-annual-20260714150613267 · model hcal-v2.0

The call

Model: 3.43% YoY (σ 0.13, as of 2026-08-07) → 3.4% (41%) / 3.3% (27%).

Market: 3.4% (46%) / 3.3% (32%).

Distribution and what each bucket means

bucketp_modelp_marketedgeimplied NSA MoM
≤3.1%2.2%2.2%-0.0%-0.31%
3.2%4.7%5.0%-0.2%-0.17%
3.3%27.1%32.5%-5.4%-0.07%
3.4%41.5%45.5%-4.0%+0.02%
3.5%18.9%16.5%+2.4%+0.12%
3.6%3.2%1.1%+2.1%+0.22%
3.7%1.1%0.4%+0.7%+0.31%
3.8%0.5%0.3%+0.2%+0.41%
3.9%0.4%0.3%+0.1%+0.51%
4.0%0.2%0.1%+0.0%+0.60%
4.1%0.1%0.1%+0.0%+0.70%
≥4.2%0.2%0.1%+0.0%+0.85%

Realized NSA MoM run-rate: April 2026: +0.85%, May 2026: +0.63%, June 2026: -0.35%.

Nowcast trajectory (Cleveland Fed, this target month)

2026-07-01: 3.524 → 2026-08-07: 3.419 (drift -0.105 over 28 obs)

2026-07-23  3.372
2026-07-24  3.372
2026-07-27  3.372
2026-07-28  3.372
2026-07-29  3.419
2026-07-30  3.419
2026-07-31  3.419
2026-08-03  3.419
2026-08-04  3.419
2026-08-05  3.419
2026-08-06  3.419
2026-08-07  3.419

Scoreboard context

Retro record at T-7 over 20 prints: log-loss edge -0.026 (market ahead of model). Treat model-market divergence with that prior.

Decision taken

NO_TRADE — no bucket cleared the fee-adjusted edge threshold

Skipped buckets
  • 3.5%: edge +0.020 below threshold 0.05
  • 3.6%: entry 1.1c < 2c — lottery ticket
  • 3.7%: entry 0.4c < 2c — lottery ticket
  • 3.8%: entry 0.3c < 2c — lottery ticket
  • 3.9%: entry 0.3c < 2c — lottery ticket
  • 4.0%: entry 0.1c < 2c — lottery ticket
  • 4.1%: entry 0.1c < 2c — lottery ticket
  • ≥4.2%: entry 0.1c < 2c — lottery ticket

Input freshness